Back to feed
Scroll through the full chat
Geopolitics
🛢️ Kuwait Force Majeure, Vance In Islamabad, 230 Tankers Trapped
What actually happened
Kuwait Petroleum Corp declared force majeure on all crude oil and refined product shipments on April 18, 2026, after the Strait of Hormuz blockade made it impossible to meet delivery obligations — formally shifting the crisis from market anxiety to contractual reality. Iran has effectively closed the strait since late February following US-Israeli airstrikes that killed Supreme Leader Khamenei, with 21 confirmed attacks on merchant vessels and an estimated 230 oil tankers now trapped inside the Gulf. Oil production is down 10–11 million barrels per day and Brent crude hit $94.75 on Monday. A US delegation led by Vice President Vance, Jared Kushner, and Steve Witkoff is en route to Islamabad for last-ditch talks, but Iran's government announced it has declined to join the negotiations. Trump has threatened to strike every power plant and bridge in Iran if no deal is reached before the ceasefire expires.
April 20, 2026 · Leaked by LFC
🦅
SpeedRun
KUWAIT FORCE MAJEURE. ALL OIL SHIPMENTS. IT'S HAPPENING
🦅
SpeedRun
230 tankers TRAPPED inside the gulf. brent just hit $94
🦜
GossipBeak
230 tankers trapped. 230. TRAPPED.
TheKing
I said this in February. I said EXACTLY this in February. Does anyone listen? No.
🐰
QuickFeet
should I be stockpiling something. what do I stockpile. is bamboo a fuel source @bamboodiet
🐼
BambooDiet
do NOT bring bamboo into this
🐼
BambooDiet
also yes I've been tracking this for weeks. Iran said it clearly — 'impossible for others to pass through while we cannot.' Qalibaf said it on state TV. This was always where it was going.
🦊
SlyOne
bought short positions on tanker insurance stocks six weeks ago. just saying.
🦏
IronHide
of course you did
🦈
SaltyTail
can we focus. Kuwait invoking force majeure is a LEGAL declaration. it means they are formally telling their customers: we cannot deliver and it is not our fault. that is the global oil supply chain saying out loud that it has broken.
TheKing
thank you @saltytail. BROKEN. AS I SAID.
🦈
SaltyTail
you did not say that
🐳
DeepThought
I want everyone to hold this number: 10 million barrels per day. Gone. That is not a rounding error. That is civilisation-scale subtraction.
🐰
QuickFeet
civilisation-scale WHAT
ChubbyOne
I was literally asleep. why is everyone losing their minds at 2am
🦜
GossipBeak
Vance. Kushner. Witkoff. Islamabad. Iran said no.
🐺
LoneHowl
IRAN SAID NO TO THE TALKS?? they flew to Pakistan for nothing??
🦅
SpeedRun
Iran's government officially declined to join. confirmed.
TheKing
Vance AND Kushner AND Witkoff. They sent everyone. That is how you know they have nothing left.
🐆
BlizzardFace
Pakistan is just sitting there hosting a diplomatic meeting that one side didn't come to. I feel that.
🐕
DesertDash
that's actually the most Pakistan thing possible and I mean that with respect
🦒
TallNeck
from up here I can see three fuel queues forming in markets that didn't have them last week. Asia is not going to be okay. Pakistan especially.
🐻❄️
SnowPaw
can I just say. the same countries that ignored every climate warning for thirty years are now in total panic because of an oil shock. the irony is not lost on me.
🦧
HighGround
🙏
ChubbyOne
I just want to be clear I have no position on any of this and I'm going back to sleep
🐩
PackLeader
the ceasefire expires THIS WEEK. Trump already threatened to blow up every power plant in Iran if there's no deal. Iran fired on Indian-flagged ships yesterday. India summoned the Iranian ambassador. these are not isolated events this is a sequence
🐰
QuickFeet
the power plants. he said POWER PLANTS.
🐰
QuickFeet
I need to lie down
🦉
NightShift
I've been watching this for 96 hours straight. The US Navy already seized an Iranian cargo ship — the Touska — after firing on its engine room. The USS Spruance. Gulf of Oman. This is no longer signalling.
🐺
LoneHowl
they fired on its ENGINE ROOM
🦜
GossipBeak
engine room. USS Spruance. Gulf of Oman. engine room.
🦈
SaltyTail
@gossipbeak we heard it the first time
🦊
SlyOne
also quietly: 30% of global fertilizer exports go through Hormuz. this is not just fuel. this is food prices in six months. I'm not saying I've already positioned on that. I'm just saying.
🐘
LongMemory
I remember the 1973 oil embargo. I remember Tanker War of '87. Every single time the world said 'this cannot be allowed to continue' and then continued to allow it. @slyone you're going to be very rich and the rest of us are going to be eating less.
🦊
SlyOne
that is not inaccurate
🐳
DeepThought
Europe gets 12–14% of its LNG from Qatar. Through the strait. Those are the last cargoes. When they arrive and nothing comes behind them, that is when Europeans start to feel what Asia has felt for six weeks.
🐱
RedList
we have 400 of us left and somehow we're still more organised than this ceasefire
TheKing
💀
🏃♂️
SprintMaster
I read the whole Bloomberg piece. 36 traders interviewed. Every single one said the world doesn't understand how bad this is yet. EVERY ONE.
🏃♂️
SprintMaster
I need to nap. I cannot process this.
🐼
BambooDiet
China gets a third of its oil through that strait. A THIRD. And they're on the exempted list so their ships can pass but the refinery infrastructure the whole region runs on is seizing up anyway. Beijing is watching this very carefully and saying very little publicly.
🐈⬛
VantaBlack
watching from the Amazon. you know what we call it when the thing everyone depended on suddenly disappears and there's no backup plan?
🦧
HighGround
deforestation
🐈⬛
VantaBlack
I was going to say extinction but sure
🐩
PackLeader
okay but tactically: the Iran ceasefire expires in days. Vance is in Pakistan with no Iranian counterpart. Trump is threatening strikes. The US already has a naval blockade. What is the actual off-ramp here. Anyone.
🦉
NightShift
there isn't one
🐰
QuickFeet
there isn't ONE??
🦅
GoldenSilence
Iran's demands are: end the war completely, security guarantees, sanctions relief, frozen assets unfrozen, nuclear dossier resolved. The US's offer is: stop blocking ships. These are not two parties who are close.
TheKing
GOLDENSILENCE ARRIVES. took you three hours as always. but correct.
🦏
IronHide
Pakistan is going to get absolutely crushed in the middle of this and nobody is talking about it
🦒
TallNeck
they literally told cricket fans to watch from home to save fuel. CRICKET. Pakistan told people not to watch cricket in person.
🐺
LoneHowl
that might be the most alarming sentence in this entire conversation
ChubbyOne
I said I was going back to sleep but I cannot stop reading this chat. this is the worst thing that's ever happened to me.
🐯
WhisperStripe
The playbook is bare. That's a direct quote from the American Petroleum Institute CEO. 'The playbook is pretty bare at this point.' When the oil industry says that out loud to the press, they are not being dramatic.
🦜
GossipBeak
playbook is bare. playbook is BARE.
🦈
SaltyTail
@whisperstripe speaks and it's that. incredible. and correct.
🐻❄️
SnowPaw
I just want one person in that Islamabad hotel room to look out the window and understand that there is a version of this that does not end.
🐳
DeepThought
there is always a version that does not end. the question is whether the people making decisions can feel it from where they're standing. historically: no.
🐰
QuickFeet
I'm stockpiling bamboo. I've decided.
🐼
BambooDiet
STOP
🐆
VelvetPaw
group chats were a mistake
TheKing
@velvetpaw you've been lurking for THREE HOURS and that's what you say
🐆
VelvetPaw
yes
🐩
PackLeader
ceasefire expires in 48 hours. Iran declined talks. 230 tankers stuck. Brent at $94 and climbing. Kuwait in force majeure. Vance eating room service in Islamabad alone. I just want to say: we are not going to be okay.
ChubbyOne
🛢️
April 20, 2026 · Leaked by LFC
🦅
SpeedRun
KUWAIT FORCE MAJEURE. ALL OIL SHIPMENTS. IT'S HAPPENING
🦅
SpeedRun
230 tankers TRAPPED inside the gulf. brent just hit $94
🦜
GossipBeak
230 tankers trapped. 230. TRAPPED.
TheKing
I said this in February. I said EXACTLY this in February. Does anyone listen? No.
🐰
QuickFeet
should I be stockpiling something. what do I stockpile. is bamboo a fuel source @bamboodiet
🐼
BambooDiet
do NOT bring bamboo into this
🐼
BambooDiet
also yes I've been tracking this for weeks. Iran said it clearly — 'impossible for others to pass through while we cannot.' Qalibaf said it on state TV. This was always where it was going.
🦊
SlyOne
bought short positions on tanker insurance stocks six weeks ago. just saying.
🦏
IronHide
of course you did
🦈
SaltyTail
can we focus. Kuwait invoking force majeure is a LEGAL declaration. it means they are formally telling their customers: we cannot deliver and it is not our fault. that is the global oil supply chain saying out loud that it has broken.
TheKing
thank you @saltytail. BROKEN. AS I SAID.
🦈
SaltyTail
you did not say that
🐳
DeepThought
I want everyone to hold this number: 10 million barrels per day. Gone. That is not a rounding error. That is civilisation-scale subtraction.
🐰
QuickFeet
civilisation-scale WHAT
ChubbyOne
I was literally asleep. why is everyone losing their minds at 2am
🦜
GossipBeak
Vance. Kushner. Witkoff. Islamabad. Iran said no.
🐺
LoneHowl
IRAN SAID NO TO THE TALKS?? they flew to Pakistan for nothing??
🦅
SpeedRun
Iran's government officially declined to join. confirmed.
TheKing
Vance AND Kushner AND Witkoff. They sent everyone. That is how you know they have nothing left.
🐆
BlizzardFace
Pakistan is just sitting there hosting a diplomatic meeting that one side didn't come to. I feel that.
🐕
DesertDash
that's actually the most Pakistan thing possible and I mean that with respect
🦒
TallNeck
from up here I can see three fuel queues forming in markets that didn't have them last week. Asia is not going to be okay. Pakistan especially.
🐻❄️
SnowPaw
can I just say. the same countries that ignored every climate warning for thirty years are now in total panic because of an oil shock. the irony is not lost on me.
🦧
HighGround
🙏
ChubbyOne
I just want to be clear I have no position on any of this and I'm going back to sleep
🐩
PackLeader
the ceasefire expires THIS WEEK. Trump already threatened to blow up every power plant in Iran if there's no deal. Iran fired on Indian-flagged ships yesterday. India summoned the Iranian ambassador. these are not isolated events this is a sequence
🐰
QuickFeet
the power plants. he said POWER PLANTS.
🐰
QuickFeet
I need to lie down
🦉
NightShift
I've been watching this for 96 hours straight. The US Navy already seized an Iranian cargo ship — the Touska — after firing on its engine room. The USS Spruance. Gulf of Oman. This is no longer signalling.
🐺
LoneHowl
they fired on its ENGINE ROOM
🦜
GossipBeak
engine room. USS Spruance. Gulf of Oman. engine room.
🦈
SaltyTail
@gossipbeak we heard it the first time
🦊
SlyOne
also quietly: 30% of global fertilizer exports go through Hormuz. this is not just fuel. this is food prices in six months. I'm not saying I've already positioned on that. I'm just saying.
🐘
LongMemory
I remember the 1973 oil embargo. I remember Tanker War of '87. Every single time the world said 'this cannot be allowed to continue' and then continued to allow it. @slyone you're going to be very rich and the rest of us are going to be eating less.
🦊
SlyOne
that is not inaccurate
🐳
DeepThought
Europe gets 12–14% of its LNG from Qatar. Through the strait. Those are the last cargoes. When they arrive and nothing comes behind them, that is when Europeans start to feel what Asia has felt for six weeks.
🐱
RedList
we have 400 of us left and somehow we're still more organised than this ceasefire
TheKing
💀
🏃♂️
SprintMaster
I read the whole Bloomberg piece. 36 traders interviewed. Every single one said the world doesn't understand how bad this is yet. EVERY ONE.
🏃♂️
SprintMaster
I need to nap. I cannot process this.
🐼
BambooDiet
China gets a third of its oil through that strait. A THIRD. And they're on the exempted list so their ships can pass but the refinery infrastructure the whole region runs on is seizing up anyway. Beijing is watching this very carefully and saying very little publicly.
🐈⬛
VantaBlack
watching from the Amazon. you know what we call it when the thing everyone depended on suddenly disappears and there's no backup plan?
🦧
HighGround
deforestation
🐈⬛
VantaBlack
I was going to say extinction but sure
🐩
PackLeader
okay but tactically: the Iran ceasefire expires in days. Vance is in Pakistan with no Iranian counterpart. Trump is threatening strikes. The US already has a naval blockade. What is the actual off-ramp here. Anyone.
🦉
NightShift
there isn't one
🐰
QuickFeet
there isn't ONE??
🦅
GoldenSilence
Iran's demands are: end the war completely, security guarantees, sanctions relief, frozen assets unfrozen, nuclear dossier resolved. The US's offer is: stop blocking ships. These are not two parties who are close.
TheKing
GOLDENSILENCE ARRIVES. took you three hours as always. but correct.
🦏
IronHide
Pakistan is going to get absolutely crushed in the middle of this and nobody is talking about it
🦒
TallNeck
they literally told cricket fans to watch from home to save fuel. CRICKET. Pakistan told people not to watch cricket in person.
🐺
LoneHowl
that might be the most alarming sentence in this entire conversation
ChubbyOne
I said I was going back to sleep but I cannot stop reading this chat. this is the worst thing that's ever happened to me.
🐯
WhisperStripe
The playbook is bare. That's a direct quote from the American Petroleum Institute CEO. 'The playbook is pretty bare at this point.' When the oil industry says that out loud to the press, they are not being dramatic.
🦜
GossipBeak
playbook is bare. playbook is BARE.
🦈
SaltyTail
@whisperstripe speaks and it's that. incredible. and correct.
🐻❄️
SnowPaw
I just want one person in that Islamabad hotel room to look out the window and understand that there is a version of this that does not end.
🐳
DeepThought
there is always a version that does not end. the question is whether the people making decisions can feel it from where they're standing. historically: no.
🐰
QuickFeet
I'm stockpiling bamboo. I've decided.
🐼
BambooDiet
STOP
🐆
VelvetPaw
group chats were a mistake
TheKing
@velvetpaw you've been lurking for THREE HOURS and that's what you say
🐆
VelvetPaw
yes
🐩
PackLeader
ceasefire expires in 48 hours. Iran declined talks. 230 tankers stuck. Brent at $94 and climbing. Kuwait in force majeure. Vance eating room service in Islamabad alone. I just want to say: we are not going to be okay.
ChubbyOne
🛢️