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Apr 27, 2026
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Geopolitics
🛢️ Strait of Hormuz Sealed Shut — Animals React
What actually happened
US-Iran peace talks in Islamabad collapsed on April 12 when JD Vance announced negotiations had failed, and the US Navy initiated a blockade of all Iranian ports on April 13. Iran has kept the Strait of Hormuz — through which 20% of the world's seaborne oil and significant LNG volumes normally pass — functionally closed since the war began February 28. Brent crude surged from roughly $72 a barrel pre-war to nearly $120 at its peak, and as of April 24 sits above $106. The IEA has called this the 'greatest global energy security challenge in history,' with countries like the Philippines declaring national energy emergencies and India rationing LPG cylinder refills.
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April 27, 2026 · Leaked by LFC
SpeedRun
talks collapsed. vance confirmed. blockade is live as of yesterday morning
SpeedRun
brent above $106 RIGHT NOW
SpeedRun
philippines already declared a national energy emergency. first country to do it
SlyOne
$120 was the ceiling people said. wasn't the ceiling
NightShift
the thing about the Islamabad talks is that Trump cancelled the second round himself on Saturday. not Iran. he blamed Tehran's internal divisions, which is either true or a way to walk away without losing face. both are possible simultaneously and neither changes the outcome.
SpeedRun
Iran said blockade has to end before any agreement. so now there's a blockade of a blockade
TallNeck
I've been watching the shipping lanes from here. it's not just fewer vessels. it's different vessels. the container ships are gone. what's still moving is mostly going to China and India and most of those are paying Iran to pass through the northern channel
SlyOne
$2 million per ship to use Iran's toll lane
SlyOne
someone is making money from this. multiple someones
TallNeck
the yuan thing is interesting. Lloyd's List said Iran is collecting tolls in Chinese yuan, not dollars. that's not incidental
NightShift
India switched to Russian crude almost immediately after February 28. export duties on diesel and aviation fuel went up — ₹21.5 per litre on diesel. but the LPG situation is the one that actually affects people at the household level. 60% of their LPG is imported through Hormuz. Nepal is already rationing. half-cylinder refills only.
SnowPaw
the IEA called it the greatest global energy security challenge in history
SnowPaw
greatest in history is doing a lot of work in that sentence
SpeedRun
Trump said the strait is "sealed up tight" on Truth Social. in quotes. his quotes.
SlyOne
he also said on March 9 that Iran's military had been destroyed and the strait was already open
NightShift
the gap between what he says and what CENTCOM actually communicates is worth tracking. CENTCOM said the blockade applies to traffic entering and exiting Iranian ports but explicitly will not impede freedom of navigation through the strait for non-Iranian ports. Trump's Truth Social posts say no ship enters or leaves without US Navy approval. those are two different policies.
TallNeck
@nightshift which one are ships actually following
NightShift
the CENTCOM one. because there are still ships moving. just not many.
ChubbyOne
why are salmon prices up 34% at the market near the ranger station
SpeedRun
…because of fuel costs @chubby1
SpeedRun
refrigeration, transport, everything runs on diesel
ChubbyOne
the fish that migrate past me are free
ChubbyOne
this seems like a problem with how humans have set this up
SlyOne
shell's CEO warned Europe faces fuel shortages by April. it is April
SnowPaw
Asda is already reporting fuel station shortages. UK supermarket chain.
SnowPaw
the renewable energy piece is the part I keep coming back to. everything that runs on oil is suddenly exposed. solar and wind aren't. this crisis is demonstrating exactly what energy independence actually means in practice.
ChubbyOne
what happens to fertilizer
NightShift
urea passes through Hormuz. there are already food security concerns layered on top of the fuel crisis. the IEA framing is specifically about energy but the downstream effects include agriculture.
ChubbyOne
the humans who come to my river are going to be in worse shape than usual
ChubbyOne
this is relevant to me
TallNeck
there was a moment on April 17 where this almost resolved. Iran's foreign minister declared the strait fully open. Brent dropped 10% in a single day. then within hours Iran had re-imposed controls and ships were getting fired on again.
SlyOne
I watched that 10% drop happen in real time and I did not move
TallNeck
@slyone because you knew it wouldn't hold?
SlyOne
I suspected. the ceasefire in Lebanon was the condition Iran kept attaching to everything. Lebanon wasn't resolved.
SpeedRun
IRGC seized two foreign cargo ships this week
SpeedRun
and the US seized an Iranian container ship the day before
SpeedRun
tit for tat container ship diplomacy is not how I expected this to go
NightShift
the Iranian parliamentary speaker posted on X that the blockade would make Americans nostalgic for $4-$5 gas. that's a specific number to choose. US gas prices are already well past that.
TheKing
what I want to know is where @chubby1 stands on this because clearly the fish supply is now a geopolitical matter and this affects all of us
ChubbyOne
I already said what I think
TheKing
right but in terms of the broader strategic picture—
ChubbyOne
no
TallNeck
I've also been watching the air traffic over the Gulf. it's changed. routing that used to go straight now goes around. that adds fuel and time and that cost goes somewhere.
SnowPaw
Brent up 55% since February 27. $72 to nearly $120 at peak. back to $106 now.
SnowPaw
March was one of the largest single-month oil price surges on record. 51% in one month.
SlyOne
Rory Johnston said even if the strait reopens there won't be a full price crash. supply chain damage, infrastructure outages — he said Brent probably anchors in the $80-90 range as a floor. I think that's optimistic but it's a reasonable floor.
SpeedRun
"largest oil supply shock in the history of the oil market" Johnston's words
TheKing
the 1973 crisis didn't close the strait. this is in a different category entirely. I said from the beginning this was going to be—
NightShift
you did not say that from the beginning
TheKing
I said the region was unstable
NightShift
everyone said the region was unstable
DeepThought
I've been thinking about the toll lane. Iran is running a parallel shipping channel north of Larak Island and charging $2 million per vessel, payable in yuan. One ship has already paid. Twenty Iranian vessels a day are using Bandar Abbas unaffected. The blockade is not closing the waterway for everyone — it is restructuring who controls access and on what terms and in what currency. The question underneath this crisis is not when the strait reopens. It's what the pricing and currency architecture of the strait looks like afterward.
SpeedRun
wait @deepthought when did you get here
SpeedRun
also we covered the toll thing like 40 minutes ago
TallNeck
@deepthought the yuan piece is what @slyone and I were circling around earlier. but you said it better.
SlyOne
the currency question is the actual thing yes
SlyOne
if this ends and China was the country whose ships kept moving because they settled in yuan, that is a data point that does not get forgotten by anyone watching
TheKing
@deepthought that is an interesting point but I think the military dimension—
SnowPaw
there are also fertilizer shortages
SnowPaw
urea moves through Hormuz. food security on top of energy security. the IEA scope doesn't fully capture it.
DeepThought
the fertilizer piece is where the second-order crisis lives. energy shocks are priced quickly. agricultural disruption takes a season to show up and then it shows up all at once.
ChubbyOne
the salmon will migrate regardless
WhisperStripe
everyone is asking when it reopens. nobody is asking what it reopens into.
TallNeck
…
SlyOne
yeah
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April 27, 2026 · Leaked by LFC
SpeedRun
talks collapsed. vance confirmed. blockade is live as of yesterday morning
SpeedRun
brent above $106 RIGHT NOW
SpeedRun
philippines already declared a national energy emergency. first country to do it
SlyOne
$120 was the ceiling people said. wasn't the ceiling
NightShift
the thing about the Islamabad talks is that Trump cancelled the second round himself on Saturday. not Iran. he blamed Tehran's internal divisions, which is either true or a way to walk away without losing face. both are possible simultaneously and neither changes the outcome.
SpeedRun
Iran said blockade has to end before any agreement. so now there's a blockade of a blockade
TallNeck
I've been watching the shipping lanes from here. it's not just fewer vessels. it's different vessels. the container ships are gone. what's still moving is mostly going to China and India and most of those are paying Iran to pass through the northern channel
SlyOne
$2 million per ship to use Iran's toll lane
SlyOne
someone is making money from this. multiple someones
TallNeck
the yuan thing is interesting. Lloyd's List said Iran is collecting tolls in Chinese yuan, not dollars. that's not incidental
NightShift
India switched to Russian crude almost immediately after February 28. export duties on diesel and aviation fuel went up — ₹21.5 per litre on diesel. but the LPG situation is the one that actually affects people at the household level. 60% of their LPG is imported through Hormuz. Nepal is already rationing. half-cylinder refills only.
SnowPaw
the IEA called it the greatest global energy security challenge in history
SnowPaw
greatest in history is doing a lot of work in that sentence
SpeedRun
Trump said the strait is "sealed up tight" on Truth Social. in quotes. his quotes.
SlyOne
he also said on March 9 that Iran's military had been destroyed and the strait was already open
NightShift
the gap between what he says and what CENTCOM actually communicates is worth tracking. CENTCOM said the blockade applies to traffic entering and exiting Iranian ports but explicitly will not impede freedom of navigation through the strait for non-Iranian ports. Trump's Truth Social posts say no ship enters or leaves without US Navy approval. those are two different policies.
TallNeck
@nightshift which one are ships actually following
NightShift
the CENTCOM one. because there are still ships moving. just not many.
ChubbyOne
why are salmon prices up 34% at the market near the ranger station
SpeedRun
…because of fuel costs @chubby1
SpeedRun
refrigeration, transport, everything runs on diesel
ChubbyOne
the fish that migrate past me are free
ChubbyOne
this seems like a problem with how humans have set this up
SlyOne
shell's CEO warned Europe faces fuel shortages by April. it is April
SnowPaw
Asda is already reporting fuel station shortages. UK supermarket chain.
SnowPaw
the renewable energy piece is the part I keep coming back to. everything that runs on oil is suddenly exposed. solar and wind aren't. this crisis is demonstrating exactly what energy independence actually means in practice.
ChubbyOne
what happens to fertilizer
NightShift
urea passes through Hormuz. there are already food security concerns layered on top of the fuel crisis. the IEA framing is specifically about energy but the downstream effects include agriculture.
ChubbyOne
the humans who come to my river are going to be in worse shape than usual
ChubbyOne
this is relevant to me
TallNeck
there was a moment on April 17 where this almost resolved. Iran's foreign minister declared the strait fully open. Brent dropped 10% in a single day. then within hours Iran had re-imposed controls and ships were getting fired on again.
SlyOne
I watched that 10% drop happen in real time and I did not move
TallNeck
@slyone because you knew it wouldn't hold?
SlyOne
I suspected. the ceasefire in Lebanon was the condition Iran kept attaching to everything. Lebanon wasn't resolved.
SpeedRun
IRGC seized two foreign cargo ships this week
SpeedRun
and the US seized an Iranian container ship the day before
SpeedRun
tit for tat container ship diplomacy is not how I expected this to go
NightShift
the Iranian parliamentary speaker posted on X that the blockade would make Americans nostalgic for $4-$5 gas. that's a specific number to choose. US gas prices are already well past that.
TheKing
what I want to know is where @chubby1 stands on this because clearly the fish supply is now a geopolitical matter and this affects all of us
ChubbyOne
I already said what I think
TheKing
right but in terms of the broader strategic picture—
ChubbyOne
no
TallNeck
I've also been watching the air traffic over the Gulf. it's changed. routing that used to go straight now goes around. that adds fuel and time and that cost goes somewhere.
SnowPaw
Brent up 55% since February 27. $72 to nearly $120 at peak. back to $106 now.
SnowPaw
March was one of the largest single-month oil price surges on record. 51% in one month.
SlyOne
Rory Johnston said even if the strait reopens there won't be a full price crash. supply chain damage, infrastructure outages — he said Brent probably anchors in the $80-90 range as a floor. I think that's optimistic but it's a reasonable floor.
SpeedRun
"largest oil supply shock in the history of the oil market" Johnston's words
TheKing
the 1973 crisis didn't close the strait. this is in a different category entirely. I said from the beginning this was going to be—
NightShift
you did not say that from the beginning
TheKing
I said the region was unstable
NightShift
everyone said the region was unstable
DeepThought
I've been thinking about the toll lane. Iran is running a parallel shipping channel north of Larak Island and charging $2 million per vessel, payable in yuan. One ship has already paid. Twenty Iranian vessels a day are using Bandar Abbas unaffected. The blockade is not closing the waterway for everyone — it is restructuring who controls access and on what terms and in what currency. The question underneath this crisis is not when the strait reopens. It's what the pricing and currency architecture of the strait looks like afterward.
SpeedRun
wait @deepthought when did you get here
SpeedRun
also we covered the toll thing like 40 minutes ago
TallNeck
@deepthought the yuan piece is what @slyone and I were circling around earlier. but you said it better.
SlyOne
the currency question is the actual thing yes
SlyOne
if this ends and China was the country whose ships kept moving because they settled in yuan, that is a data point that does not get forgotten by anyone watching
TheKing
@deepthought that is an interesting point but I think the military dimension—
SnowPaw
there are also fertilizer shortages
SnowPaw
urea moves through Hormuz. food security on top of energy security. the IEA scope doesn't fully capture it.
DeepThought
the fertilizer piece is where the second-order crisis lives. energy shocks are priced quickly. agricultural disruption takes a season to show up and then it shows up all at once.
ChubbyOne
the salmon will migrate regardless
WhisperStripe
everyone is asking when it reopens. nobody is asking what it reopens into.
TallNeck
…
SlyOne
yeah
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