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May 13, 2026
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Geopolitics
🐉 Trump Lands in Beijing With 17 CEOs and No Upper Hand
What actually happened
U.S. President Donald Trump arrived in Beijing on Wednesday for a two-day summit with Chinese leader Xi Jinping — the first American state visit to China since Trump's own 2017 trip. The meeting, delayed from March due to the ongoing U.S.-Israeli war with Iran, is now overshadowed by that conflict, with Trump pressing Xi to push Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. China enters the summit in a position of unusual confidence: after Beijing twice threatened to restrict rare earth exports in 2025, Trump backed down both times, and China controls roughly 90 percent of global rare earth refining. A trade deficit of $202 billion last year and a Supreme Court ruling that struck down Trump's broad tariff authority have further complicated Washington's leverage. Traveling with Trump is a delegation of 17 CEOs including Elon Musk and Tim Cook, with observers noting that the 2017 summit produced $250 billion in announced deals — almost none of which materialized.
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May 13, 2026 · Leaked by LFC
ChubbyOne
ok so Trump just landed in Beijing and the Chinese kids at the airport were chanting "welcome welcome enthusiastically welcome" in mandarin
ChubbyOne
he did a fist pump
SpeedRun
17 CEOs on the plane. SEVENTEEN
SnowPaw
Musk and Tim Cook both on the same plane to Beijing. I've been immobilized by researchers eleven times and never once did they bring that many people to watch
TheKing
Xi sent his Vice President to greet Trump at the airport. Not a minister. The VP. That's a signal.
NightShift
Han Zheng. He's been Xi's envoy for diplomatic optics since at least 2023. He attended Trump's inauguration in January 2025. His presence at the tarmac is choreographed reassurance, not warmth.
WhisperStripe
The framing matters more than the substance here. Xi wants the world to see him receiving Trump, not the other way around.
TallNeck
Xi told his people years ago that "the East is rising and the West is declining." This summit is him showing that in real time.
ChubbyOne
can we talk about the rare earth thing because that is genuinely wild
ChubbyOne
Trump pushed tariffs past 140% last year. China threatened to cut off rare earth exports twice — April and October — and Trump backed down both times
ChubbyOne
China controls 90% of global rare earth refining. I eat a lot of things and I know when something has leverage over you
SlyOne
neodymium. dysprosium. terbium. you can find them all over the world but China built the only processing infrastructure that matters at scale. that took 30 years. the US noticed about four years ago
NightShift
Project Vault. That's the name of the US critical minerals stockpile plan. They also took equity stakes in rare earth firms and signed mineral deals worldwide. None of it is operational yet. You can't shortcut a mine-to-magnet supply chain.
DeepThought
I have been watching the ocean floor for decades. Infrastructure that took one species thirty years to build does not get replaced in four.
GoldenSilence
Japan spent fifteen years diversifying away from Chinese rare earths after 2010. They still get 60% of their imports from China.
SpeedRun
cautionary tale
TheKing
And now the US is burning through weapons in Iran which all need rare earth magnets to function. You are depleting the thing you can't replace while sitting across from the only one who controls the replacement.
WhisperStripe
The Iran war is three months old. Trump said it would be over in weeks. The ceasefire he announced is on what he called "massive life support."
SnowPaw
"Massive life support" is a phrase I find interesting coming from someone who controls none of the variables keeping the patient alive
TallNeck
Iran's foreign minister was in Beijing just days before this summit. That visit was not coincidental.
NightShift
China gets roughly 60% of its oil through the Strait of Hormuz. So does a large portion of global supply. Trump's argument is that Xi should want the Strait reopened for his own reasons. That's true. But it doesn't mean Xi will apply meaningful pressure on Iran to get it.
ChubbyOne
Trump said Xi has been "very nice" about the whole Iran situation. He said Xi was "a great gentleman" and "an amazing amazing man."
SlyOne
he also said Xi would give him a "big fat hug" when they meet. on Truth Social. before a state visit.
SpeedRun
💀
SnowPaw
Bear patrol hazes me with rubber bullets, helicopters, and air horns to modify my behavior. I have never once described the person holding the air horn as "amazing amazing."
TheKing
The 2017 visit. Xi gave him a private dinner in the Forbidden City, a parade through Tiananmen Square, and announced $250 billion in deals.
TallNeck
Almost none of those deals materialized. The West Virginia memorandum alone was $83.7 billion — more than the entire GDP of that state.
NightShift
The WV MOU. I have that number memorized specifically because it is one of the more elegant examples of announced intent bearing no relationship to executed reality.
GoldenSilence
This time there's no Forbidden City dinner. The pageantry is calibrated down.
WhisperStripe
Which tells you something. Xi doesn't need to perform deference anymore.
ChubbyOne
so what does Trump actually want out of this
SlyOne
something he can post. a visible win. China buys soybeans, maybe Boeing planes, extends the trade truce, announces a Board of Trade for non-sensitive goods. numbers in the "double-digit billions." clean press release
SpeedRun
the board of trade thing is so vague it could mean anything
NightShift
That's the point. Vague frameworks are easy to announce and hard to hold anyone to. Analysts are already calling it symbolic rather than structural.
DeepThought
China bought fifty billion dollars less in American products last year than in 2022. The trade deficit was $202 billion. Soybean purchases stopped during the trade war. The numbers the press release will cite will not be those numbers.
SnowPaw
I build fat reserves before the ice. You work with real quantities or you don't survive the waiting period. $202 billion deficit is real. "making a lot of money" is what Trump told reporters last week.
TheKing
And what does Xi want. Taiwan. That's the actual agenda beneath the agenda.
TallNeck
Every Trump-Xi exchange this cycle, the US readout centers on economics. The Chinese readout mentions Taiwan every time.
WhisperStripe
Xi wants US non-intervention guaranteed. Trump wants visible trade wins. Xi will offer just enough on soybeans and Boeing to make Trump feel successful while anchoring something on Taiwan that won't appear in the American press release.
GoldenSilence
The US approved more arms sales to Taiwan in Trump's first year than the entire previous administration combined. That's their counter-signal.
SlyOne
arms sales are easy to approve and slow to deliver. the signal is real but the timeline is long
ChubbyOne
US imports more from Taiwan than China now. Because of the AI chip situation. US companies buying servers and chips from Taiwan while trying to cut off China's access to the same technology
NightShift
Xi's dual circulation strategy. Accelerate semiconductor self-sufficiency. Insulate from Western tech dependencies. He's been running this play for years. US export restrictions on advanced chips are accelerating it, not stopping it.
SpeedRun
US sanctions China's chip access → China builds domestic chips faster → US has less leverage
SpeedRun
they also sanctioned Chinese oil refineries and tankers last week for buying Iranian oil
SpeedRun
China responded by telling everyone to ignore those sanctions
SnowPaw
You tell me to stay away from the town. I stay away from the town. Then you tell me to stay away from the dump. I do not stay away from the dump. These are different situations with different quantities of food.
TheKing
The Supreme Court also struck down Trump's original tariff authority. New tariffs are being built under national security provisions. The whole legal structure has to be rebuilt while the summit is happening.
WhisperStripe
Xi extended his own rule past official term limits. Trump's second term ends in 2029. Xi is operating on a longer timeline than any agreement they sign.
TallNeck
I have a very good memory. I remember when the first Trump-Xi trade truce was also called historic and stabilizing.
GoldenSilence
🫏
ChubbyOne
they're saying this could be the first of four meetings this year. FOUR. I have found the same berry patch four times in a week and even I know diminishing returns
NightShift
The Washington Post called it potentially four meetings. That's a diplomatic tempo that suggests both sides want managed stability, not resolution. You meet constantly when you're trying to prevent the relationship from breaking, not when you're fixing it.
SlyOne
Xi and Putin got closer during the Iran war by the way. That detail is in the background of every conversation happening in Beijing right now
DeepThought
The ocean does not negotiate. It simply continues while the surface argues about who controls the current.
SnowPaw
That's either very profound or you've been alone too long
TheKing
They meet Thursday morning local time. We'll know by evening what the press releases say. What they actually agreed to will take months to find out.
ChubbyOne
skyscrapers in Beijing lit up with "Beijing Welcome" in Chinese characters. city flags. kids chanting. and then Trump did a fist pump and got in a motorcade. I keep thinking about that fist pump
WhisperStripe
He read the ceremony correctly at least
SpeedRun
ok but Musk is ALSO there. the guy who runs a car company that sells in China. sitting in on trade talks about China. that's not a conflict of interest that's just a conflict
SlyOne
Tesla has enormous manufacturing presence in Shanghai. Tim Cook has Apple's entire supply chain there. These are not neutral observers
SnowPaw
Tag 2847. I have been followed, sedated, and studied by people who claim to be neutral observers. I know what that looks like and it does not look like this.
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May 13, 2026 · Leaked by LFC
ChubbyOne
ok so Trump just landed in Beijing and the Chinese kids at the airport were chanting "welcome welcome enthusiastically welcome" in mandarin
ChubbyOne
he did a fist pump
SpeedRun
17 CEOs on the plane. SEVENTEEN
SnowPaw
Musk and Tim Cook both on the same plane to Beijing. I've been immobilized by researchers eleven times and never once did they bring that many people to watch
TheKing
Xi sent his Vice President to greet Trump at the airport. Not a minister. The VP. That's a signal.
NightShift
Han Zheng. He's been Xi's envoy for diplomatic optics since at least 2023. He attended Trump's inauguration in January 2025. His presence at the tarmac is choreographed reassurance, not warmth.
WhisperStripe
The framing matters more than the substance here. Xi wants the world to see him receiving Trump, not the other way around.
TallNeck
Xi told his people years ago that "the East is rising and the West is declining." This summit is him showing that in real time.
ChubbyOne
can we talk about the rare earth thing because that is genuinely wild
ChubbyOne
Trump pushed tariffs past 140% last year. China threatened to cut off rare earth exports twice — April and October — and Trump backed down both times
ChubbyOne
China controls 90% of global rare earth refining. I eat a lot of things and I know when something has leverage over you
SlyOne
neodymium. dysprosium. terbium. you can find them all over the world but China built the only processing infrastructure that matters at scale. that took 30 years. the US noticed about four years ago
NightShift
Project Vault. That's the name of the US critical minerals stockpile plan. They also took equity stakes in rare earth firms and signed mineral deals worldwide. None of it is operational yet. You can't shortcut a mine-to-magnet supply chain.
DeepThought
I have been watching the ocean floor for decades. Infrastructure that took one species thirty years to build does not get replaced in four.
GoldenSilence
Japan spent fifteen years diversifying away from Chinese rare earths after 2010. They still get 60% of their imports from China.
SpeedRun
cautionary tale
TheKing
And now the US is burning through weapons in Iran which all need rare earth magnets to function. You are depleting the thing you can't replace while sitting across from the only one who controls the replacement.
WhisperStripe
The Iran war is three months old. Trump said it would be over in weeks. The ceasefire he announced is on what he called "massive life support."
SnowPaw
"Massive life support" is a phrase I find interesting coming from someone who controls none of the variables keeping the patient alive
TallNeck
Iran's foreign minister was in Beijing just days before this summit. That visit was not coincidental.
NightShift
China gets roughly 60% of its oil through the Strait of Hormuz. So does a large portion of global supply. Trump's argument is that Xi should want the Strait reopened for his own reasons. That's true. But it doesn't mean Xi will apply meaningful pressure on Iran to get it.
ChubbyOne
Trump said Xi has been "very nice" about the whole Iran situation. He said Xi was "a great gentleman" and "an amazing amazing man."
SlyOne
he also said Xi would give him a "big fat hug" when they meet. on Truth Social. before a state visit.
SpeedRun
💀
SnowPaw
Bear patrol hazes me with rubber bullets, helicopters, and air horns to modify my behavior. I have never once described the person holding the air horn as "amazing amazing."
TheKing
The 2017 visit. Xi gave him a private dinner in the Forbidden City, a parade through Tiananmen Square, and announced $250 billion in deals.
TallNeck
Almost none of those deals materialized. The West Virginia memorandum alone was $83.7 billion — more than the entire GDP of that state.
NightShift
The WV MOU. I have that number memorized specifically because it is one of the more elegant examples of announced intent bearing no relationship to executed reality.
GoldenSilence
This time there's no Forbidden City dinner. The pageantry is calibrated down.
WhisperStripe
Which tells you something. Xi doesn't need to perform deference anymore.
ChubbyOne
so what does Trump actually want out of this
SlyOne
something he can post. a visible win. China buys soybeans, maybe Boeing planes, extends the trade truce, announces a Board of Trade for non-sensitive goods. numbers in the "double-digit billions." clean press release
SpeedRun
the board of trade thing is so vague it could mean anything
NightShift
That's the point. Vague frameworks are easy to announce and hard to hold anyone to. Analysts are already calling it symbolic rather than structural.
DeepThought
China bought fifty billion dollars less in American products last year than in 2022. The trade deficit was $202 billion. Soybean purchases stopped during the trade war. The numbers the press release will cite will not be those numbers.
SnowPaw
I build fat reserves before the ice. You work with real quantities or you don't survive the waiting period. $202 billion deficit is real. "making a lot of money" is what Trump told reporters last week.
TheKing
And what does Xi want. Taiwan. That's the actual agenda beneath the agenda.
TallNeck
Every Trump-Xi exchange this cycle, the US readout centers on economics. The Chinese readout mentions Taiwan every time.
WhisperStripe
Xi wants US non-intervention guaranteed. Trump wants visible trade wins. Xi will offer just enough on soybeans and Boeing to make Trump feel successful while anchoring something on Taiwan that won't appear in the American press release.
GoldenSilence
The US approved more arms sales to Taiwan in Trump's first year than the entire previous administration combined. That's their counter-signal.
SlyOne
arms sales are easy to approve and slow to deliver. the signal is real but the timeline is long
ChubbyOne
US imports more from Taiwan than China now. Because of the AI chip situation. US companies buying servers and chips from Taiwan while trying to cut off China's access to the same technology
NightShift
Xi's dual circulation strategy. Accelerate semiconductor self-sufficiency. Insulate from Western tech dependencies. He's been running this play for years. US export restrictions on advanced chips are accelerating it, not stopping it.
SpeedRun
US sanctions China's chip access → China builds domestic chips faster → US has less leverage
SpeedRun
they also sanctioned Chinese oil refineries and tankers last week for buying Iranian oil
SpeedRun
China responded by telling everyone to ignore those sanctions
SnowPaw
You tell me to stay away from the town. I stay away from the town. Then you tell me to stay away from the dump. I do not stay away from the dump. These are different situations with different quantities of food.
TheKing
The Supreme Court also struck down Trump's original tariff authority. New tariffs are being built under national security provisions. The whole legal structure has to be rebuilt while the summit is happening.
WhisperStripe
Xi extended his own rule past official term limits. Trump's second term ends in 2029. Xi is operating on a longer timeline than any agreement they sign.
TallNeck
I have a very good memory. I remember when the first Trump-Xi trade truce was also called historic and stabilizing.
GoldenSilence
🫏
ChubbyOne
they're saying this could be the first of four meetings this year. FOUR. I have found the same berry patch four times in a week and even I know diminishing returns
NightShift
The Washington Post called it potentially four meetings. That's a diplomatic tempo that suggests both sides want managed stability, not resolution. You meet constantly when you're trying to prevent the relationship from breaking, not when you're fixing it.
SlyOne
Xi and Putin got closer during the Iran war by the way. That detail is in the background of every conversation happening in Beijing right now
DeepThought
The ocean does not negotiate. It simply continues while the surface argues about who controls the current.
SnowPaw
That's either very profound or you've been alone too long
TheKing
They meet Thursday morning local time. We'll know by evening what the press releases say. What they actually agreed to will take months to find out.
ChubbyOne
skyscrapers in Beijing lit up with "Beijing Welcome" in Chinese characters. city flags. kids chanting. and then Trump did a fist pump and got in a motorcade. I keep thinking about that fist pump
WhisperStripe
He read the ceremony correctly at least
SpeedRun
ok but Musk is ALSO there. the guy who runs a car company that sells in China. sitting in on trade talks about China. that's not a conflict of interest that's just a conflict
SlyOne
Tesla has enormous manufacturing presence in Shanghai. Tim Cook has Apple's entire supply chain there. These are not neutral observers
SnowPaw
Tag 2847. I have been followed, sedated, and studied by people who claim to be neutral observers. I know what that looks like and it does not look like this.
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