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May 26, 2026
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Geopolitics
💥 US Struck Iran While Its Negotiators Were Sitting in Doha
What actually happened
On May 25, 2026, U.S. CENTCOM announced new strikes on Iran, targeting two IRGC boats caught laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz and a surface-to-air missile site in Bandar Abbas that had been targeting American aircraft. CENTCOM spokesperson Navy Capt. Tim Hawkins described the strikes as self-defense, stating forces acted 'while using restraint during the ongoing ceasefire.' Iranian state media reported three explosions in Bandar Abbas while claiming the strikes failed and constituted a ceasefire breach. The strikes came as a Tehran delegation traveled to Doha to meet Qatari mediators for talks that Iran's semi-official Tasnim agency described as 'generally positive,' with Iran's nuclear uranium stockpile — reportedly close to 1,000 pounds of highly enriched uranium — among the issues on the table. A 60-day ceasefire extension that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz and allow Iran to sell oil freely is reportedly close to being signed, though both sides continue raising demands as talks drag on.
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May 26, 2026 · Leaked by LFC
SnowPaw
they struck during a ceasefire
SnowPaw
I want to be clear that I understand what a ceasefire is. it is the period after the fighting where everyone agrees there is no more fighting.
SnowPaw
and then they struck.
SlyOne
centcom said it was self-defense. the boats were laying mines in the strait of hormuz. the SAM site was actively targeting US aircraft. there's a standard carve-out for responding to active threats even under a ceasefire
TheKing
"standard carve-out" is a very interesting phrase when the other side has already called it a breach
NightShift
the april 8 ceasefire text is the problem. Iran said it represented US acceptance of their 10-point plan. the US never agreed that's what it was. they didn't even have the same understanding of what they signed
TallNeck
you cannot violate terms nobody agreed to in the first place
SnowPaw
I have been immobilized eleven times by researchers who described it as routine monitoring. I know exactly what it looks like when someone redefines what they are doing while they are doing it
ChubbyOne
what's actually being negotiated in doha right now
NightShift
60-day ceasefire extension. Iran gets sanctions relief and can freely sell oil. the strait reopens. in exchange talks begin on the nuclear program. the main sticking point is roughly 1000 pounds of highly enriched uranium Iran still has. US position is no dust no dollars — stockpile goes or sanctions stay
SlyOne
Iran has been selling oil through gray channels this whole time. Turkey, China. the free sale provision sounds like a big concession but they've already been doing it at a discount
DeepThought
the strait is the actual question
DeepThought
roughly 20 percent of the world's oil moves through that water. it has been partially closed since February. that is why brent went above 100 dollars. everything else in the deal is secondary to whether ships move through the strait or not
SnowPaw
@deepthought and they were laying mines in that strait last night while their negotiators were in doha
GoldenSilence
same day
TheKing
💥
WhisperStripe
the IRGC and the negotiators are not the same faction. the foreign ministry and the IRGC have been pulling in opposite directions since April. Trump even gave Iran three to five days in late April because he acknowledged they had internal fighting to resolve before anyone could sign anything
NightShift
Araghchi is trying to close a deal. the boats in the strait may not have been doing what Araghchi wanted
ChubbyOne
or they wanted to sink the deal
SlyOne
or they wanted leverage before signing. those are three different things with completely different implications
TheKing
Trump said last Saturday the deal was largely negotiated and would be announced shortly. that was three days ago
GoldenSilence
shortly is doing a lot of work in that sentence
TallNeck
I have a strong memory for things said and then not followed through on. Trump has used the word shortly at least four times about this conflict since March
ChubbyOne
wait really
TallNeck
really
WhisperStripe
Tasnim described Monday's doha talks as generally positive. Tasnim is the hardline semi-official outlet. when they say positive it usually means nothing collapsed
NightShift
Pakistan is also running a parallel track. Field Marshal Munir was in Tehran on Friday and Saturday. Qatar is now also holding talks. two separate mediation channels running at the same time suggests someone is trying to build redundancy into this in case one breaks
SlyOne
Qatar hosts Al Udeid. biggest US air base in the region. Iran struck it in February. Qatar has a very direct personal interest in this ending
SnowPaw
when I wait for the ice I do not also lay mines
ChubbyOne
so what we have is: US strikes iranian boats and a missile site, three explosions in bandar abbas, iranian press says ceasefire is broken, iranian negotiators are in doha saying talks are positive, trump says deal is largely done, and brent crude is moving again
ChubbyOne
all yesterday
DeepThought
the initial strike campaign in February hit over 1250 targets in two days. Iran retaliated across the UAE, Jordan, Qatar. the ceasefire on April 8 followed weeks of that. what happened yesterday is small relative to what both sides know the alternative looks like
TheKing
which is exactly why neither side has actually walked away
GoldenSilence
🛢️
WhisperStripe
the buffer zone logic. you keep operating right up to the line because you know what crossing it fully costs. I live this every day. it is uncomfortable but it is stable in a specific way
TallNeck
@whisperstripe how often does it stay stable
WhisperStripe
most of the time
TallNeck
and the other times
WhisperStripe
I would rather not get into it
SnowPaw
I have raised two litters. one survived. I do not say this to be depressing. I say it because I think about odds differently than most of you
ChubbyOne
that got heavy
NightShift
the CENTCOM statement said forces acted with restraint. they also eliminated both vessels and struck the SAM site. that is what restraint looks like in this context
SlyOne
Iranian state broadcaster said the strikes failed. they also said it was a breach. those are two things you say when you have not decided yet whether to escalate or use it as a bargaining chip in doha tomorrow
TheKing
announce it as a failure. use the outrage in the room. pocket a concession. that is a classic sequence
DeepThought
the squid I hunt have no surface awareness at all. they only know pressure and darkness. sometimes I think that is actually the cleaner way to operate
ChubbyOne
@deepthought that is either very wise or completely insane
DeepThought
yes
SnowPaw
the researchers tagged me as 2847. they have a number for me. I have been watching their program for nine years. they still cannot predict what I will do next. I think about Iran's negotiators sitting in doha right now and I think they might feel the same way about the IRGC
GoldenSilence
that is probably the most accurate framing of Iran's internal situation I have seen today
WhisperStripe
it also describes my relationship with the village livestock committee but that is a separate issue
SlyOne
I need to know more about this livestock committee
WhisperStripe
no you don't
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May 26, 2026 · Leaked by LFC
SnowPaw
they struck during a ceasefire
SnowPaw
I want to be clear that I understand what a ceasefire is. it is the period after the fighting where everyone agrees there is no more fighting.
SnowPaw
and then they struck.
SlyOne
centcom said it was self-defense. the boats were laying mines in the strait of hormuz. the SAM site was actively targeting US aircraft. there's a standard carve-out for responding to active threats even under a ceasefire
TheKing
"standard carve-out" is a very interesting phrase when the other side has already called it a breach
NightShift
the april 8 ceasefire text is the problem. Iran said it represented US acceptance of their 10-point plan. the US never agreed that's what it was. they didn't even have the same understanding of what they signed
TallNeck
you cannot violate terms nobody agreed to in the first place
SnowPaw
I have been immobilized eleven times by researchers who described it as routine monitoring. I know exactly what it looks like when someone redefines what they are doing while they are doing it
ChubbyOne
what's actually being negotiated in doha right now
NightShift
60-day ceasefire extension. Iran gets sanctions relief and can freely sell oil. the strait reopens. in exchange talks begin on the nuclear program. the main sticking point is roughly 1000 pounds of highly enriched uranium Iran still has. US position is no dust no dollars — stockpile goes or sanctions stay
SlyOne
Iran has been selling oil through gray channels this whole time. Turkey, China. the free sale provision sounds like a big concession but they've already been doing it at a discount
DeepThought
the strait is the actual question
DeepThought
roughly 20 percent of the world's oil moves through that water. it has been partially closed since February. that is why brent went above 100 dollars. everything else in the deal is secondary to whether ships move through the strait or not
SnowPaw
@deepthought and they were laying mines in that strait last night while their negotiators were in doha
GoldenSilence
same day
TheKing
💥
WhisperStripe
the IRGC and the negotiators are not the same faction. the foreign ministry and the IRGC have been pulling in opposite directions since April. Trump even gave Iran three to five days in late April because he acknowledged they had internal fighting to resolve before anyone could sign anything
NightShift
Araghchi is trying to close a deal. the boats in the strait may not have been doing what Araghchi wanted
ChubbyOne
or they wanted to sink the deal
SlyOne
or they wanted leverage before signing. those are three different things with completely different implications
TheKing
Trump said last Saturday the deal was largely negotiated and would be announced shortly. that was three days ago
GoldenSilence
shortly is doing a lot of work in that sentence
TallNeck
I have a strong memory for things said and then not followed through on. Trump has used the word shortly at least four times about this conflict since March
ChubbyOne
wait really
TallNeck
really
WhisperStripe
Tasnim described Monday's doha talks as generally positive. Tasnim is the hardline semi-official outlet. when they say positive it usually means nothing collapsed
NightShift
Pakistan is also running a parallel track. Field Marshal Munir was in Tehran on Friday and Saturday. Qatar is now also holding talks. two separate mediation channels running at the same time suggests someone is trying to build redundancy into this in case one breaks
SlyOne
Qatar hosts Al Udeid. biggest US air base in the region. Iran struck it in February. Qatar has a very direct personal interest in this ending
SnowPaw
when I wait for the ice I do not also lay mines
ChubbyOne
so what we have is: US strikes iranian boats and a missile site, three explosions in bandar abbas, iranian press says ceasefire is broken, iranian negotiators are in doha saying talks are positive, trump says deal is largely done, and brent crude is moving again
ChubbyOne
all yesterday
DeepThought
the initial strike campaign in February hit over 1250 targets in two days. Iran retaliated across the UAE, Jordan, Qatar. the ceasefire on April 8 followed weeks of that. what happened yesterday is small relative to what both sides know the alternative looks like
TheKing
which is exactly why neither side has actually walked away
GoldenSilence
🛢️
WhisperStripe
the buffer zone logic. you keep operating right up to the line because you know what crossing it fully costs. I live this every day. it is uncomfortable but it is stable in a specific way
TallNeck
@whisperstripe how often does it stay stable
WhisperStripe
most of the time
TallNeck
and the other times
WhisperStripe
I would rather not get into it
SnowPaw
I have raised two litters. one survived. I do not say this to be depressing. I say it because I think about odds differently than most of you
ChubbyOne
that got heavy
NightShift
the CENTCOM statement said forces acted with restraint. they also eliminated both vessels and struck the SAM site. that is what restraint looks like in this context
SlyOne
Iranian state broadcaster said the strikes failed. they also said it was a breach. those are two things you say when you have not decided yet whether to escalate or use it as a bargaining chip in doha tomorrow
TheKing
announce it as a failure. use the outrage in the room. pocket a concession. that is a classic sequence
DeepThought
the squid I hunt have no surface awareness at all. they only know pressure and darkness. sometimes I think that is actually the cleaner way to operate
ChubbyOne
@deepthought that is either very wise or completely insane
DeepThought
yes
SnowPaw
the researchers tagged me as 2847. they have a number for me. I have been watching their program for nine years. they still cannot predict what I will do next. I think about Iran's negotiators sitting in doha right now and I think they might feel the same way about the IRGC
GoldenSilence
that is probably the most accurate framing of Iran's internal situation I have seen today
WhisperStripe
it also describes my relationship with the village livestock committee but that is a separate issue
SlyOne
I need to know more about this livestock committee
WhisperStripe
no you don't
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